EDN: WTRLCE
DOI: https://doi.org/10.65891/2949-1983-2024-20-4-11-14
Authors:
SHABANOV Timofei Yuryevich (Chelyabinsk State University; South Ural State University; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)
Abstract.
Modern globalization, internationalization, regional competitive differentiation actualize geoeconomic methods of modeling for geopolitical planning, management and control. The novelty is the proposed paradigm, based on the translation of ideas of theoretical mechanics into economics. Considering the annual values of statistical indicators of territorial concentrates as a system of geographically distributed objects (subjects of the Russian Federation), it is possible to determine the geographic barycenter. Knowing the values of the geocoordinates of the barycenter, it is possible to determine the tendencies and trend of the barycenter movement through the analysis of the dynamics as an indicator of the dynamics of the system under consideration. The proposed method of barycenter analysis: is simple, since the calculations require the use of known geocoordinates and the value of their statistical indicators; is objective, since algorithms and procedures tested in theoretical mechanics are used; is stable and steady, i.e. it is not susceptible to fluctuations in values such as inflation, movements, etc., since it fixes a stable geocoordinate within a single period; reproduced, because it can be used to study any indicators of the economic system in geospace; the results obtained are clear, because the behavior of the center of the system reflects the behavior of the entire system. Based on the Rosstat data on the population of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 1990-2023, data on the geocoordinates of the administrative centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the dynamics of the geographic coordinates of the barycenter of the population of Russia was identified and considered. For 2023, the values of the barycenter of the population are 53.83 ° N and 53.75 ° E with an average regional population of 1.73 million people. The fluctuation of the barycenter coordinates for the period 1990-2023 lies in the zone of 0.5-2.5 geographic degrees with the presence of a stable trend of the north-eastern exodus of the population in the western direction of industrial and culturally developed territories. The dynamics of the population of Russia is relatively uniform, speed and acceleration and is at the level of 0.04 degrees / year and degrees / (year * year), respectively, the level of the driving force of the population of Russia is relatively stable and is in the region of 6 million people * degrees / (year * year).
Keywords:
barycenter, geoeconomics, driving force, modeling, population
