STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS AND FACTORS OF INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN THE REGIONS OF THE URAL FEDERAL DISTRICT: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

EDN: UEVIGV

DOI: https://doi.org/10.65891/2949-1983-2026-22-2-14-17

Authors:

CHESNYUKOVA Lyudmila Konstantinovna

Affiliation:

Ural State University of Economics

Abstract.

The article identifies key factors of industrial growth based on Rosstat data for 2016–2025 for six regions of the Ural Federal District. Using correlation and cluster analyses, panel regression with fixed effects, and calculation of structural elasticities, it is shown that manufacturing is the main driver. There are three types of regions: raw materials, industrial, and volatile. Differentiated industrial policy strategies are proposed for each type. The scientific contribution of the work consists in the systematic application of modern econometric methods – panel regression with fixed effects, assessment of structural elasticities, cluster analysis and sustainability methodology – to identify factors of industrial growth based on materials from a specific macroregion. The proposed typology of regions, based on objective quantitative criteria, can serve as a basis for fine-tuning regional policy.

Keywords:

industry, Ural Federal District, cluster analysis, investments, manufacturing, sustainability, industrial policy, forecasting

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